Re(1): Question of the Week #211 - Dania Super Super: How about this?
Posted on August 27, 2007 at 04:03:45 PM by Eric

In gambling this is called a +EV. Most pro gamblers look for +EV situations and take advantage of it, and stay away from -EV situations. Since parimutuels have such a high takeout of 18%+, this is very -EV. Most people that like making money gambling don't bet jai alai, dogs, or even horses. The only time it makes since to do it is when there is a carryover, thus making it +EV. This is the only time I really even consider betting any serious money at parimutuels. Other then that the takeout will tear you apart in the long run.
Now as for how to tackle hitting a winner in a +EV super carryover, I would suggest taking the top 500 easiest superfecta possible combinations (assuming random posts, giving no team a huge edge) and play then each for $1 for $500 total. While your only covering 30% of the numbers, you really have over a 50% chance of hitting a winner.
Now if there is a really big carryover where there will be over a 25% +EV(ex. 2500 carryover into 7000 pool), I'm buying every ticket (maybe twice).
Finding +EV situations is the most important part of being a pro gambler(actually living from gambling only). If anyone else needs any advise, I'll be on the Final Table of the Poker Stars Sunday million replay all week scooping yet another 5 figure score! Holla!!

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